Northwestern at Nebraska

Beef: Nebraska (-7.5)

I had NW as my upset pick last week and they went on to get slaughtered. I will not be picking them for an upset this time around. Their offense is flat out bad. It seems like the defense has given up on carrying the team this season. You get the sense that since their first half run has come to an end the Wildcats aren’t playing with the same urgency. I think the Huskers will end up winning this game close to the number. If I had to side, though, it would not be with the Wildcats.
Final Score: Nebraska 27, Northwestern 14
 
Chaplin: Nebraska (-7.5)

The Cornhuskers rebounded nicely last week, allowing me to nail my upset pick of the week despite having a pretty average week overall. I like the Huskers again this week at home against a Northwestern team that is really struggling on offense to find some sort of identity. This game will be won when Northwestern is on offense and Nebraska is on defense, as Northwestern’s strength is it’s running game and Nebraska’s strength on defense is its rush D. The Huskers seem to have turned a corner offensively with the return of De’Mornay Pierson-El, and I think he is the catalyst that sends Nebraska on a second half surge.
Final Score: Nebraska 45, Northwestern 31
 
Smouse: Northwestern (+7.5)

This Northwestern team has been quite disappointing lately especially in the shutout loss to Michigan two weeks ago and a loss to Iowa last week. But despite those two back-to-back losses to top 25 teams 7.5 is a lot of points in this one. I think Nebraska wins but not by more than a touchdown.
Final Score: Nebraska 28, Northwestern 24

​Duke at Virginia Tech

Beef: Virginia Tech (-2.5)
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I love that Duke has turned into a respectable ACC football team over the past few years. I really love their defense too.  I think this will be a close and low scoring game. In the end, the Blue Devils’ coaching and control of the game turn into a victory over an inconsistent Tech team.
Final Score: Duke 20, Virginia Tech 17
 
Chaplin: Virginia Tech (-2.5)

Duke has historically struggled against Virginia Tech, especially on the road. This trip to Blacksburg should be very similar to the previous trips for anyone associated with the Duke program, coming back to Durham with a head scratching loss. Virginia Tech gets QB Michael Brewer back for this one, the same QB who led the Hokies to a first half lead over the Ohio State Buckeyes. Look for VT to make a statement here, and win a tough hard fought game at home.
Final Score: Virginia Tech 13, Duke 10

Smouse: Duke (+2.5)
 
I like a one loss Duke team on the road against Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games at home. Duke comes in on a nice three game win streak and will win this game by a field goal. 
Final Score: Duke 20, Virginia Tech 17

Utah at USC

Beef: USC (-3.5)

The Trojans are coming off back to back losses. They were a popular pick to upset Notre Dame last week, but that did not pan out. I expect much of the same to happen here. USC certainly has the tools to win with Cody Kessler throwing to (top-5 name in FBS) JuJu Schuster, and that very well could happen if everything goes right. But I believe this Utah team is different from teams of past that were good for a few upsets and great home field advantage. The Utes continue their streak and start to garner more respect.
Final Score: Utah 31, USC 24

Chaplin: Utah (+3.5)
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Nobody believes the Utes are any good, and they keep on winning. Utah heads to USC where they have won one game in the history of their program. This is EXACTLY why I believe Utah will win! USC put all of their emotions into the game at Notre Dame last week and wound up getting thumped by the Irish. Look for Utah to come in and take care of business at the Coliseum this weekend, and maybe the nation will finally start to appreciate just how good this Utes team is.
Final Score: Utah 24 USC 17
           
Smouse: Utah (+3.5)
 
Absolutely baffles me how USC is favored over the third ranked team in the nation even if they are at home. The Trojans are 0-2 at home so far against pac12 schools and this game will be no different.
Final Score: Utah 35, USC 17

Locks of the Week

Beef: Navy (-23) v. Tulane 

Tulane gave up 65 to Georgia Tech’s triple option, which Navy executes, dare I say, just as well if not better.  I see the Midshipmen scoring almost every drive and Tulane’s offense coming off the field after 3 plays a lot. The already porous defense will wear down quickly and our future servicemen don’t know that there is a word in the dictionary spelled m-e-r-c-y, so they will show none.
Final Score: Navy 48, Tulane 20

Chaplin: Temple (+3) at ECU
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Don’t understand this one. Yes, the Pirates are always tough (especially at home). Yes, Temple looked sloppy in their double digit win over UCF last week. But I can not figure out for the life of me why the Pirates are giving 3 points here. Temple is 6-0 and Matt Rhule’s bunch might be the best defensive unit in the country. ECU is 4-3 coming off of a 13 point win at home against Tulsa, a result that doesn’t exactly lead many to believe the Pirates are better than the Owls. Take the points with the better team here and watch PJ Walker have a field day against this Pirate defense on Thursday night.
Final Score: Temple 31, ECU 17

Smouse: Florida State (-5) at Georgia Tech

Not sure why this line is so small, even at Georgia Tech. GT is 2-5 and 0-4 in the ACC. Florida State wins this game by 10 points at the least.
Final Score: Florida State 31 ,Georgia Tech 20
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Upsets of the Week

Beef: Texas A&M (+5) v. Ole Miss

This will be an exciting one to watch and interesting to see how each team responds to last week’s loss. I think the ball will be aired out and end up somewhat high scoring. I like where A&M is at better than a declining Ole Miss. It doesn’t hurt that the Aggies play fairly well on the road under Sumlin.
Final Score: Aggies 35-31

Chaplin: Auburn (+6) at Arkansas

Arkansas and Brett Bielema aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire in the 2015 season like many pundits predicted in the beginning of the year. Auburn seems to have finally turned a corner after walloping Kentucky last week on a Thursday night on the road in Lexington. With the long week to prepare, I like Auburn to make another statement with a road win against the Razorbacks that could leave some wondering if Bielema is the right man for the job in Arkansas.
Final Score: Auburn 22, Arkansas 14
 
Smouse: Syracuse (+6.5) v. Pittsburgh
 
This pick all comes down to the home field advantage that Syracuse has in the Carrier Dome. The last time they were home they kept up with LSU all game only losing by 10. This Pittsburgh team has a better record however has not had very impressive wins on the road. Syracuse by no more than a touchdown.
Final Score: Syracuse 21, Pittsburgh 17
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Florida at LSU
 
Beef: LSU (-9.5)

Losing Will Grier was a huge setback for the already struggling Florida offense, which now has to rely on Treon Harris. The Gators will not have the atmosphere at the Swamp to back them like they did against Ole Miss. I feel a low scoring game with LSU in control the entire time but he UF defense makes sure its not a blowout. Take LSU as long as the line stays in the single digits.
Final Score: LSU 27, Florida 13

Smouse: Florida (+9.5)

​The big news this week has been Will Grier and his suspension from this dominant Florida team. When I use the word dominant I am referring to the Florida defense. On the other side: Fournette, the almost undisputed Heisman trophy winner to be has been nothing but sensational for LSU.  But despite that I see a strong Florida defense with a dual threat back up quarterback that keeps the game close enough for the Gators to cover.
Final: LSU 17, Florida 10
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Chaplin: LSU (-9.5)

So a backup quarterback who before this year was a career sub 50% passer, who was beat out as the starter this season after a solid showing against New Mexico State, takes over the starting gig in Gainesville. First test? Going to Baton Rouge to face a pass defense that allows less than 200 yards per game through the air. Harris will undoubtedly make a few plays with his feet that should keep the Gators competitive but LSU and Leonard Fournette will ultimately both prevail and cover this spread.
Final Score: LSU 31, Florida 14

Michigan State at Michigan
 
Beef: Michigan State (+8)

This line is inflated because of Michigan's shutouts against bad offenses and Sparty's inability to win in blowout fashion. This is a rivalry that finally has some implication. Don't fall for recency bias. Sparty was No. 2 in the polls last week, now is 8-point dogs. Take the points. 
 ​Final Score: Michigan 24, Michigan State 21

Smouse: Michigan (-8)

This is going to be an easy pick for me. Two words – Harbaugh Effect. I watched a No. 13 ranked Northwestern team walk into the big house last weekend and get absolutely embarrassed. Yes, this Michigan State team is no joke, but a bigger yes- is this Michigan defense. They have not allowed a score in three games. 
Final Score: Michigan 32, Michigan State 10

Chaplin: Michigan State (+8)

This one makes no sense to me. Yes, Michigan has been playing better than any moment since the Lloyd Carr era the past three games, however this is a Michigan State team led by Senior QB Connor Cook that many voted as the No. 1 team in the country a mere 3 weeks ago. After two boring matchups against lesser opponents, look for State to be hungry to re-prove their worth against the Wolverines. Stat you didn’t know about this one? Michigan State has won outright against Michigan 6 out of the last 7 years, with the one loss being a 12-10 heartbreaker in 2012. This game will be a low scoring Spartan win, with Cook’s QB play being the difference at the end. 
​Final Score: Michigan State 16, Michigan 7

Oregon at Washington
  
Beef: Over (51)

These teams are heading in opposite directions going into this week. Washington is at home which gives them the slight edge with the number. With how unpredictable the Pac 12 has been this year, I can't be confident in one over the other. What I am confident in is that they will both put up points. Bet over 58.5 total points.
Final Score: Washington 42, Oregon 38
 
Smouse: Washington (-2.5)

This is quite an easy pick for me after watching Oregon get absolutely embarrassed at home by Utah, letting up 62 points. After coming off another loss to Washington State I see a deflated, discouraged Oregon team who is used to winning big not losing big, and since they are out of the running for the college playoff, Washington wins by 2 touchdowns or more.
Final Score: Washington 38, Oregon 20

Chaplin: Washington (-2.5)

​Honestly, this matchup is coming down to the Huskies being at home. Oregon is nowhere near their usual selves this year, while this Washington team is beginning to get its footing coming off of a big time win last week on Thursday night in Los Angeles, defeating USC 17-12 and leading to Steve Sarkisian receiving a loss in his final game as head coach of the Trojans. The Huskies need to contain QB Jeff Locke, which they have the athleticism on defense to do. 
Final Score: Washington 27, Oregon 21

Locks of the Week
 
Beef: Western Kentucky (-32.5) at North Texas
 
You will probably not watch this game. But every time you check the ticker it will seem like WKU is scoring in increments of 14. Doughty will throw his way to cover in the first half. And North Texas will not be good enough for a back door cover.
Final Score: Western Kentucky 58, North Texas 17
 
Smouse: Penn State (+18.5) at Ohio State
 
Not much to say about this game besides that the buckeyes never win big aka more than 14 points, ever. I am so sick of taking them with huge spreads, to only watch them win by a touchdown. So, I will easily take Penn State in this game to keep it close, but lose by 10-14 points MAX.
Final Score: Ohio State 35, Penn State 20

Chaplin: Hawaii at New Mexico (Under 51)
 
Hawaii has traveled to the mainland for games 3 times so far this season and has scored a combined 0 points through those 3 games. New Mexico hasn’t eclipsed 40 points minus a 66-0 week 1 win over Mississippi Valley State at home. 51 points between these two would be an absolute miracle.
Final Score: New Mexico 27, Hawaii 7

Upset of the Week
 
Beef: Northwestern (+2.5) v. Iowa
 
Apparently the beating they took last week was bad enough to make Northwestern home dogs. Though they are the better team. Look for a very low scoring game with Northwestern winning outright. 
Final Score: Northwestern 21, Iowa 13
 
Smouse: USC (+7.5) at Notre Dame
 
Despite Notre Dame coming into the game as 6.5 point favorites against the Fighting Irish, I have seen Notre Dame at their worst. That being said, no matter the rankings of either team ND USC is always a close game. Despite the spread, I can see the Trojans winning this game outright and Notre Dame getting shocked at home.
Final Score: USC 27, Notre Dame 24 

Chaplin: Nebraska (+2) at Minnesota
 
Technically, this would be an upset. Historically speaking, this would be expected. Nebraska enters this game an underdog after getting its heart broken AGAIN at home, this time to the hands of the Wisconsin Badgers, who kicked a field goal to win 23-21 at the buzzer. The Cornhuskers strength is run defense, while the Gophers cannot pass effectively enough with QB Mitch Leidner to take advantage of a shaky at times Cornhuskers secondary. I don’t expect Tommy Armstrong to light the world on fire, but I do believe a larger role from DeMornay Pierson-El will lead the Cornhuskers to a much needed win in Minneapolis this Saturday. 
Final Score: Nebraska 24, Minnesota 21 

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